Climate Predictions & Odds· 141 markets
N
30%
Yes
M
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$44k Vol.
$4k Liq.
2
Ended
$44k Vol.$4k Liq.2Ended
96%
14.2-14.4m sq km
N
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$329k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$329k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
41%
Yes
W
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$315k Vol.
$7k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$315k Vol.$7k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
M
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$29k Vol.
$4k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$29k Vol.$4k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
36%
<4m sq km
W
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
7%
Yes
M
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
9
Ends in 12 months
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.9Ends in 12 months
11%
Yes
W
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$4.2m Vol.
$169k Liq.
🔥$59k today
176
Ends in over 1 year
$4.2m Vol.🔥$59k today$169k Liq.176Ends in over 1 year
48%
$X
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.8m Vol.
$76k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.8m Vol.$76k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
85%
8+
S
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$950k Vol.
$116k Liq.
19
Ends in over 1 year
$950k Vol.$116k Liq.19Ends in over 1 year
94%
>$1T
L
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
$1.2m Vol.
$77k Liq.
22
Ends in over 1 year
$1.2m Vol.$77k Liq.22Ends in over 1 year
44%
Morgan Stanley
H
Human moon landing in 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$36k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$1.9m Vol.$36k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
6%
Yes
L
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$1.6m Vol.
$276k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$1.6m Vol.$276k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
90%
SpaceX
S
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
$2.9m Vol.
$225k Liq.
44
Ends in over 1 year
$2.9m Vol.$225k Liq.44Ends in over 1 year
96%
1T+
W
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.
$161k Liq.
17
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$161k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
46%
2
H
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in 9 months
30%
14–16
S
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
$664k Vol.
$96k Liq.
8
Ends in over 1 year
$664k Vol.$96k Liq.8Ends in over 1 year
46%
2.0T+
M
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$225k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$225k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 7 days
64%
1.25–1.29ºC
2
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$279k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$279k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 7 days
99%
4th or lower
M
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k