Climate Predictions & Odds· 147 markets
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$309k Vol.
$9k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$309k Vol.$9k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$327k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$327k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 2 months
34%
Yes
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$11k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 months
7%
Yes
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$34k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in 1 day
95%
14.2-14.4m sq km
30%
Yes
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
8
Ends in about 1 year
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.8Ends in about 1 year
12%
Yes
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$28k Vol.
$5k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$28k Vol.$5k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
39%
<4m sq km
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$3.9m Vol.
$181k Liq.
🔥$98k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years
$3.9m Vol.🔥$98k today$181k Liq.170Ends in almost 2 years
62%
Other
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
$2.9m Vol.
$219k Liq.
42
Ends in almost 2 years
$2.9m Vol.$219k Liq.42Ends in almost 2 years
94%
1T+
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
$1.2m Vol.
$91k Liq.
16
Ends in almost 2 years
$1.2m Vol.$91k Liq.16Ends in almost 2 years
38%
Goldman Sachs
NASA Artemis II
$698k Vol.
$26k Liq.
94
Ends in about 11 hours
$698k Vol.$26k Liq.94Ends in about 11 hours
83%
April 30
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
11–13
Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?
$386k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$386k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
1%
1600
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.7m Vol.
$73k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.7m Vol.$73k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
66%
8+
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$21k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$21k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
Precipitation in Seattle in March?
$321k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$321k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
95%
5-6"
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
$348k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$348k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 9 months
37%
5-6
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
$649k Vol.
$93k Liq.
8
Ends in almost 2 years
$649k Vol.$93k Liq.8Ends in almost 2 years
46%
2.0T+