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Cognitive Test Predictions & Odds· 102 markets

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O
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Tech·chatgpt

OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$3k Vol.
$748 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

50%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Geopolitics·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days

18%

April 30

A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$27k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

28%

Yes

B
Biden cognitive test before April?

Politics·Biden

Biden cognitive test before April?

$159k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

B
Biden cognitive test in July?

Politics·Biden

Biden cognitive test in July?

$100k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

No

K
Kicking Props

Game Props · Super Bowl Props

Kicking Props

$19k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Jake Elliot o/u 1.5 FG

C
Coin Toss

Super Bowl Props · coin toss

Coin Toss

$51k Vol.
$0 Liq.
30
Ended

Chiefs or Eagles?

A
Alternate Totals

totals · Super Bowl LIX

Alternate Totals

$16k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

o/u 57.5

T
Trump Margin of Victory in Iowa Caucus?

Politics·Trump

Trump Margin of Victory in Iowa Caucus?

$437k Vol.
$0 Liq.
8
Ended

25-30%

T
Taiwan Presidential Election: Who will win?

Politics·Taiwan Election

Taiwan Presidential Election: Who will win?

$3.8m Vol.
$0 Liq.
168
Ended

Lai Ching-te (賴清德)

U
UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

UK Election · Global Elections

UK Election: Labour % of the vote?

$113k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended

30-35%

F
First Score Method

Super Bowl Props · Sports

First Score Method

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
K
Kickoff Props

Super Bowl Props · Game Props

Kickoff Props

$10k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

Opening Kickoff Touchback?

G
GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Tech·GPT-5

GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

$76k Vol.
$0 Liq.
30
Ended

No

N
Nic Carter vs. David Hoffman: Who will win?

Crypto·Sports

Nic Carter vs. David Hoffman: Who will win?

$192k Vol.
$0 Liq.
10
Ended

Draw/No winner

A
Argentina Presidential Election: Who will win?

Politics·presidential election

Argentina Presidential Election: Who will win?

$787k Vol.
$0 Liq.
137
Ended

Javier Milei

#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?

Culture·X

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 17 and May 24?

$275k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended

75-84

#
# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?

Culture·All

# of Elon Musk tweets between May 10 and May 17?

$487k Vol.
$0 Liq.
36
Ended

<60

A
Alan Keating VPIP above 85%? - Celebrity poker game

Poker warning · Sports

Alan Keating VPIP above 85%? - Celebrity poker game

$1k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

T
Trump Margin of Victory in Idaho Caucus?

Elections·idaho caucus

Trump Margin of Victory in Idaho Caucus?

$7k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

>60%