Continuing Resolution Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$80k Vol.
$61k Liq.
1
Ends in about 9 hours
$80k Vol.$61k Liq.1Ends in about 9 hours
8%
Catherine Cortez Masto
Will Trump nationalize elections?
$13k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$13k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$39k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$39k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$487k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$487k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$33k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$33k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$230k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$230k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
8%
Yes
73%
Pause–Pause–Pause
How late will Leavitt be to the next press briefing?
$435 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$435 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
52%
<15 minutes
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$63.1m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$2.8m today
1,260
$63.1m Vol.🔥$2.8m today$1.5m Liq.1,260
73%
December 31
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
2%
Yes
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.2m Vol.
$504k Liq.
137
Ends in 7 months
$4.2m Vol.$504k Liq.137Ends in 7 months
50%
Democrats Sweep
97%
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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
$25 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$25 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
77%
TSA
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
$551k Vol.
$12k Liq.
26
Ends in about 9 hours
$551k Vol.$12k Liq.26Ends in about 9 hours
51%
December 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$357k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$357k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
83%
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