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Debt Ceiling Predictions & Odds· 108 markets

AllPoliticsIranUkraineBusinessTrumpElectionsFedUnited StatesZelenskyyChinaOilAICongressOpenAICultureTweet MarketsUS ElectionNuclearTechGlobal ElectionsFed RatesGeopoliticsVanceEconomyFOMCParlaysGov ShutdownJerome PowellEconomic PolicyWorldBig TechXiMidtermsTrump ZelenskyyUkraine Peace DealOustHFCMilitary StrikesIran CeasefireU.S. X IranIsrael X Iran
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Politics · Economy

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$9k Vol.
$21k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

93%

$40 trillion

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Politics · Economy

US defaults on debt by 2027?

$15k Vol.
$28k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

5%

Yes

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · Politics

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

$8k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months

36%

Yes

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

World · Economy

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

$749 Vol.
$285 Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

47%

Yes

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

Politics · Economy

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

$0 Vol.
$2k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

61%

Yes

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Tech·OpenAI

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

28%

Yes

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Geopolitics·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

$440k Vol.
$38k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

25%

Yes

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$116k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months

83%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Geopolitics·Trump

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$29k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month

41%

April 30

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$391k Vol.
$100k Liq.
19
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$136k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

76%

Pause–Pause–Pause

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

Politics·Iran

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

$375k Vol.
$26k Liq.
62

16%

Isfahan nuclear facility

Nothing Ever Happens: March

World·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: March

$291k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours

71%

Nothing

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Politics·Midterms

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$254k Vol.
$30k Liq.
11
Ends in 7 months

83%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?

Culture · Politics

Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31?

$3k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in about 6 hours

2%

Yes

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?

Politics·Rewards 50, 4.5, 100

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?

$154k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 22 hours

70%

160-179

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

Economy·Trump

Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?

$0 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

44%

Yes

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Politics·Trump-Zelenskyy

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

16%

Yes

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

World·Xi

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

$75k Vol.
$132k Liq.
14
Ends in 9 months

17%

Dong Jun

White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?

Politics·Tweet Markets

White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?

$6k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

40%

160-179