Defense Predictions & Odds· 331 markets
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$50k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$50k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
8%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$6k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$6k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
$282k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$282k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$134k Vol.
$28k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$134k Vol.$28k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
66%
Yes
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$351k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$351k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
2%
Yes
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$556k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$556k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
24%
April 30
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
$134k Vol.
$20k Liq.
7
Ends in about 7 hours
$134k Vol.$20k Liq.7Ends in about 7 hours
81%
December 31
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$45k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$16k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$16k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$24k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$24k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
38%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
US kicks trans members out of military before July?
$472k Vol.
$0 Liq.
34
Ended
$472k Vol.$0 Liq.34Ended
No