Foreign Affairs Predictions & Odds· 122 markets
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
$8k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$8k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$14k Liq.
21
Ends in about 5 hours
$126k Vol.$14k Liq.21Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$20k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$20k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$11k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$11k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
16%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
$413k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$413k Vol.$24k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
30%
June 30
45%
Yes
All
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022?
$129k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$129k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
September 30
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before September?
$52k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended
$52k Vol.$0 Liq.2Ended
No
Not by April 19