Diplomacy Predictions & Odds· 143 markets
U
60%
June 30
W
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
$505k Vol.
$173k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$505k Vol.$173k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
45%
No Meeting by June 30
J
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
$281k Vol.
$44k Liq.
6
Ends in 27 days
$281k Vol.$44k Liq.6Ends in 27 days
9%
April 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$83.7m Vol.
$2.4m Liq.
🔥$3.5m today
1,424
$83.7m Vol.🔥$3.5m today$2.4m Liq.1,424
71%
December 31
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.4m Vol.
$959k Liq.
🔥$703k today
379
Ended
$12.4m Vol.🔥$703k today$959k Liq.379Ended
85%
December 31
T
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
$11.3m Vol.
$519k Liq.
🔥$593k today
217
Ends in 3 months
$11.3m Vol.🔥$593k today$519k Liq.217Ends in 3 months
75%
June 30
U
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$187k Vol.
$57k Liq.
🔥$79k today
6
Ends in about 2 months
$187k Vol.🔥$79k today$57k Liq.6Ends in about 2 months
19%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$266k Vol.
$94k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$266k Vol.$94k Liq.Ends in 27 days
3%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$84k Vol.
$123k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$84k Vol.$123k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
27%
December 31
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$966k Vol.
$39k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$966k Vol.$39k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
24%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$106k Vol.
$24k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$106k Vol.$24k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
19%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$51k Vol.
$8k Liq.
14
Ends in 27 days
$51k Vol.$8k Liq.14Ends in 27 days
18%
Yes
I
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$205k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$205k Vol.$70k Liq.Ends in 27 days
5%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$80k Vol.
$13k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$80k Vol.$13k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$433k Vol.
$48k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$433k Vol.$48k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$166k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$166k Vol.$26k Liq.Ends in 3 months
15%
Yes
W
Will Vance visit the Middle East by..?
$134k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$134k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 27 days
6%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$1k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$31k Vol.
$8k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$31k Vol.$8k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
23%
Leadership Change