Independence Predictions & Odds· 118 markets
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
$108k Vol.
$26k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$108k Vol.$26k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
$21k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$21k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
$18k Vol.
$36k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$18k Vol.$36k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?
$31k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$31k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
$123k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$123k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
Politics
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$20k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
$213k Vol.
$115k Liq.
13
Ends in 2 months
$213k Vol.$115k Liq.13Ends in 2 months
14%
Lebanese Forces (LF)
26%
Yes
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$22.4m Vol.
$810k Liq.
🔥$218k today
3
Ends in 3 months
$22.4m Vol.🔥$218k today$810k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
19%
Yes
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$6k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$6k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 8 days
32%
160-179
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$297k Vol.
$101k Liq.
8
Ends in almost 2 years
$297k Vol.$101k Liq.8Ends in almost 2 years
46%
$200M
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
$39k Vol.
$10k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$39k Vol.$10k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
56%
Yes
85%
Nothing
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$354k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$354k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
$79k Vol.
$37k Liq.
1
Ends in about 11 hours
$79k Vol.$37k Liq.1Ends in about 11 hours
0%
Yes
Nothing Ever Happens: March
$290k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$290k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
73%
Nothing