Macro Geopolitics Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$2.2m Vol.
$170k Liq.
🔥$183k today
Ends in 27 days
$2.2m Vol.🔥$183k today$170k Liq.Ends in 27 days
13%
Yes
X
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.7m Vol.
$306k Liq.
705
Ends in 9 months
$7.7m Vol.$306k Liq.705Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$31k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$31k Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
36%
Yes
W
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$195k Vol.
$49k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$195k Vol.$49k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
N
41%
Yes
Z
Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$456 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$456 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 8 days
38%
60-79
Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$911 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$911 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 5 days
38%
140-159
Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$15k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
71%
80-99
M
51%
Yes
K
Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$2k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$2k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 8 days
44%
<5
K
Khamenei # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$10k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$10k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 5 days
41%
20-24
U
9%
April 30
W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?
$540k Vol.
$16k Liq.
🔥$121k today
173
$540k Vol.🔥$121k today$16k Liq.173
16%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 10 hours
$5k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 10 hours
18%
Yes
K
Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$34k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 1 day
82%
<20
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days
$43k Vol.$12k Liq.13Ends in 27 days
18%
April 30
H
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
$722k Vol.
$89k Liq.
45
Ends in 9 months
$722k Vol.$89k Liq.45Ends in 9 months
30%
7
W
White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$11k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$11k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 8 days
36%
160-179
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$32k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ended
$32k Vol.$8k Liq.Ended
3%
Yes