North Atlantic Treaty Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
8%
Yes
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
$153k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$153k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
4%
Yes
Politics · Geopolitics
NATO Article 5 by March 31?
$39k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours
$39k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
17%
Yes
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
$10k Vol.
$8k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$10k Vol.$8k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Russian strike on a NATO member by...?
$1.7m Vol.
$10k Liq.
25
Ends in about 4 hours
$1.7m Vol.$10k Liq.25Ends in about 4 hours
1%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$122k Liq.
32
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$122k Liq.32Ends in 9 months
20%
December 31
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$14k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$14k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
$69k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
$6k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$6k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
$83k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$83k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31