Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty Predictions & Odds· 103 markets
W
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$91k Vol.
$16k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$91k Vol.$16k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$12k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$12k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$5k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
R
12%
December 31, 2026
U
16%
December 31, 2026
I
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$146k Vol.
$21k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$146k Vol.$21k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$471k Vol.
$43k Liq.
64
Ends in 9 months
$471k Vol.$43k Liq.64Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$234k Vol.
$129k Liq.
🔥$61k today
Ends in 28 days
$234k Vol.🔥$61k today$129k Liq.Ends in 28 days
5%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$964k Vol.
$30k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$964k Vol.$30k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
25%
Yes
U
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will any country leave NATO by...?
$606k Vol.
$131k Liq.
🔥$165k today
22
Ends in 9 months
$606k Vol.🔥$165k today$131k Liq.22Ends in 9 months
14%
December 31, 2026
N
41%
Yes
N
12%
Yes
N
9%
Yes
W
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
$505k Vol.
$328k Liq.
🔥$341k today
8
Ends in 9 months
$505k Vol.🔥$341k today$328k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
9%
December 31
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$18k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$18k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$69k Vol.
$74k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$69k Vol.$74k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
33%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$1k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$1k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
I
11%
Yes
