Openai Predictions & Odds· 473 markets
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
$51k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in almost 2 years
$51k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in almost 2 years
68%
Anthropic
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
32
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.32Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$7k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$7k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
41%
Head-mounted display
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$1k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
37%
Yes
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$9k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$9k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
24%
Yes
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$5k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$8k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
$11k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$11k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
$7k Vol.
$3k Liq.
5
Ends in almost 2 years
$7k Vol.$3k Liq.5Ends in almost 2 years
78%
SpaceX
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$18k Vol.
$952 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$18k Vol.$952 Liq.4Ends in 3 months
56%
60%+
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?
$0 Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$0 Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 3 months
37%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
11%
Yes
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$1.4m Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in almost 2 years
$1.4m Vol.$22k Liq.2Ends in almost 2 years
67%
$800B
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
$1.5m Vol.
$112k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$112k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
63%
No IPO by December 31, 2026
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
$15.9m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$218k today
Ends in about 6 hours
$15.9m Vol.🔥$218k today$1.5m Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
100%
Anthropic
Which company has best AI model end of June?
$2.9m Vol.
$431k Liq.
64
Ends in 3 months
$2.9m Vol.$431k Liq.64Ends in 3 months
65%
Anthropic
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$118k Liq.
1
Ends in about 6 hours
$1.0m Vol.$118k Liq.1Ends in about 6 hours
99%
Anthropic