Outage Predictions & Odds· 163 markets
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$13k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
3%
Yes
8%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$100k Vol.
$13k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$100k Vol.$13k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
17%
April 30
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
$344k Vol.
$26k Liq.
23
Ends in 3 months
$344k Vol.$26k Liq.23Ends in 3 months
75%
May 31
Will Claude go down on __ days in April?
$9k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$9k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
41%
9-11
Critical Discord Incident by April 30?
$2k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
20%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
$698 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$698 Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
50%
Yes
Services Down Parlay
$13k Vol.
$2k Liq.
5
Ends in about 15 hours
$13k Vol.$2k Liq.5Ends in about 15 hours
4%
Yes
AWS service disrupted by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours
$13k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 15 hours
4%
Yes
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$269 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$7k Vol.$269 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
37%
Up
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$21k Vol.
$19 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$21k Vol.$19 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
75%
Up
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 30?
$2k Vol.
$378 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$2k Vol.$378 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
51%
Up
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on March 30?
$1k Vol.
$392 Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$1k Vol.$392 Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
53%
Up
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on March 30?
$666 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$666 Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
66%
Up
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 30?
$165 Vol.
$200 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$165 Vol.$200 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
53%
Up
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 30?
$94 Vol.
$286 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$94 Vol.$286 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
69%
Up
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 30?
$10 Vol.
$204 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$10 Vol.$204 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
56%
Up
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on March 30?
$12 Vol.
$213 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$12 Vol.$213 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
60%
Up
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on March 30?
$0 Vol.
$14 Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$0 Vol.$14 Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
50%
Up