Public Policy Predictions & Odds· 166 markets
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?
$415k Vol.
$10k Liq.
25
Ends in about 7 hours
$415k Vol.$10k Liq.25Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
$212k Vol.
$26k Liq.
61
Ends in 3 months
$212k Vol.$26k Liq.61Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$30k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$30k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
24%
June 30, 2026
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$874k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$874k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
29%
December 31
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
19%
April 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$233k Vol.
$19k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$19k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
shelby park · texas
Will the feds cut the razor wire in Shelby Park, Texas?
$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
$33k Vol.$0 Liq.4Ended
No
All
Will a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant be available in the US before April 1, 2022?
$29k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$29k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
All
Will there be an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) granted for a COVID-19 vaccine prior to Nov 3 2020?
$22k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$22k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
