Reconcilliation Predictions & Odds· 116 markets

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

92%

Yes

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

$0 Vol.
$13k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months

86%

Yes

N
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Geopolitics · World

Next leader out of power before 2027?

$3.5m Vol.
$353k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

63%

Orbán - Hungary PM

R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

11%

Yes

X
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

$75k Vol.
$19k Liq.
14
Ends in 9 months

2%

Yes

Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

$17k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours

71%

60-79

B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.4m Vol.
$534k Liq.
150
Ends in 7 months

52%

Democrats Sweep

I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

$31k Vol.
$7k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

23%

Leadership Change

R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$59k Vol.
$16k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 months

3%

Yes

N
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

$444k Vol.
$32k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months

41%

Yes

Á
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?

Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?

$0 Vol.
$123 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months

80%

Yes

S
SpaceX 4th Starship launch survives re-entry?

Science · outer space

SpaceX 4th Starship launch survives re-entry?

$4k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

'
'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' Opening Weekend

'Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes' Opening Weekend

$187k Vol.
$0 Liq.
15
Ended

>$56m

@
@friendtech 3+ new posts by midnight?

@friendtech 3+ new posts by midnight?

$12k Vol.
$0 Liq.
1
Ended

Yes

O
OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

OpenAI apologizes to Scarlett Johansson by Friday?

$30k Vol.
$0 Liq.
23
Ended

Yes

S
State wide recount in Presidential Election?

USA Election · Election Night

State wide recount in Presidential Election?

$25k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No

T
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?

Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?

$40k Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended

No

N
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

$90k Vol.
$0 Liq.
14
Ended

Yes