538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 104 markets

T
Trump approval rating on April 3?

Trump approval rating on April 3?

$154k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

46%

39.0–39.4

H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$43k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

36%

35%

H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

$3k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

12%

↑ 44%

T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

9%

Up

U
UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

$9 Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

39%

Up

S
Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

Starmer approval Up or Down in April?

$488 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 28 days

43%

Up

R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$59k Vol.
$17k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months

3%

Yes

B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

$4.3m Vol.
$481k Liq.
146
Ends in 7 months

51%

Democrats Sweep

C
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?

$894 Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

6%

Yes

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

92%

Yes

C
ChatGPT Outage by...?

ChatGPT Outage by...?

$29k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 15 days

66%

April 17

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

$0 Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

85%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?

4%

Yes

D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$964.1m Vol.
$37.5m Liq.
🔥$7.1m today
630
Ends in over 2 years

25%

Gavin Newsom

A
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Economy · Politics

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

$9k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

28%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?

2%

Yes

W
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

$559k Vol.
$1k Liq.
27
Ended

31%

Yes

R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?

$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 15 hours

17%

Yes

2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

$28k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

46%

Other

Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 1 day

71%

80-99