538 Approval Rating Predictions & Odds· 104 markets
T
48%
39.5–39.9
H
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$43k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$43k Vol.$20k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
36%
35%
H
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
$3k Vol.
$24k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$3k Vol.$24k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
12%
↑ 46%
S
Starmer approval Up or Down in April?
$488 Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 28 days
$488 Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 28 days
43%
Up
R
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
$59k Vol.
$18k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$59k Vol.$18k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
3%
Yes
B
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
$4.3m Vol.
$482k Liq.
146
Ends in 7 months
$4.3m Vol.$482k Liq.146Ends in 7 months
51%
Democrats Sweep
C
6%
Yes
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
C
65%
April 17
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$7k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
85%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?
$15k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ended
$15k Vol.$6k Liq.Ended
4%
Yes
D
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
$964.6m Vol.
$37.5m Liq.
🔥$7.1m today
630
Ends in over 2 years
$964.6m Vol.🔥$7.1m today$37.5m Liq.630Ends in over 2 years
25%
Gavin Newsom
A
Economy · Politics
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$9k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$9k Vol.$4k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?
$32k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ended
$32k Vol.$8k Liq.Ended
3%
Yes
R
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$5k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
17%
Yes
W
Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
$559k Vol.
$1k Liq.
27
Ended
$559k Vol.$1k Liq.27Ended
31%
Yes
2
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
$28k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$28k Vol.$31k Liq.Ends in 7 months
46%
Other
"
99%
72+
H
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
1
$4k Vol.$8k Liq.1
82%
0