AI Development Predictions & Odds· 102 markets
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$7k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$7k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$7k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$8k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
46%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
32
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.32Ended
37%
December 31, 2026
Will OpenAI launch a token before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
9%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$2.4m Vol.
$205k Liq.
53
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$205k Liq.53Ends in 9 months
81%
$100M
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.2m Vol.
$173k Liq.
21
Ended
$1.2m Vol.$173k Liq.21Ended
100%
OpenAI
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$4k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$4k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$803k Vol.
$101k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$803k Vol.$101k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
85%
Anthropic
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$2.7m Vol.
$420k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$2.7m Vol.$420k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
89%
Anthropic
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$5k Vol.
$6k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$6k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$5k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$5k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
42%
Head-mounted display
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$13k Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in 30 days
82%
Anthropic
6%
Yes