Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
O
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
A
20%
Yes
U
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
44%
Yes
O
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$845 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$845 Liq.1Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$71k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$71k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
C
6%
Yes
A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$5k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$5k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
32%
Yes
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$9k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
6%
Yes
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
G
83%
December 31, 2026
A
58%
Yes
C
57%
June 30
B
Big AI out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
$19k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 13 days
$19k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 13 days
85%
April 15
W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$56k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$56k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
C
66%
April 17
W
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$46k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in 28 days
$46k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in 28 days
16%
Yes
W
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$3.1m Vol.
$587k Liq.
🔥$239k today
Ends in 28 days
$3.1m Vol.🔥$239k today$587k Liq.Ends in 28 days
95%
Anthropic
W
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$335k Vol.
$110k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$335k Vol.$110k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
51%
Anthropic
W
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$926k Vol.
$174k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$926k Vol.$174k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
51%
Anthropic