Climate Change Predictions & Odds· 116 markets
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$35k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 1 day
$35k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in 1 day
95%
14.2-14.4m sq km
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$28k Vol.
$4k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$28k Vol.$4k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
39%
<4m sq km
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
$58k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$58k Vol.$8k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$14k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$14k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
42%
April 30
13%
Isfahan nuclear facility
46%
Yes
2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$271k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 10 days
$271k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 10 days
98%
4th or lower
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$2.4m Vol.
$112k Liq.
20
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$112k Liq.20Ends in 9 months
46%
2
What price will Aster hit in 2026?
$64k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$64k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
72%
↓ 0.40
Science · Weather
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
40%
3rd hottest
What price will Lighter hit in 2026?
$596k Vol.
$35k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$596k Vol.$35k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
16%
↑ $4
MAGA / Make America Great Again
Obamacare/Affordable Care Act
Promoting a “Synodal Church”
Michigan
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
$105k Vol.
$0 Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$105k Vol.$0 Liq.3Ends in 3 months
Yes
1.28-1.30
Global Temp · Science
September 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$2.5m Vol.
$0 Liq.
87
Ended
$2.5m Vol.$0 Liq.87Ended
1.23-1.28