Climate Predictions & Odds· 323 markets
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$310k Vol.
$7k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$310k Vol.$7k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
39%
Yes
Natural Disaster · Science
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$327k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$327k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 2 months
41%
Yes
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
$11k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$11k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 months
7%
Yes
Weather · climate
Max Arctic sea ice extent this winter?
$34k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in 1 day
96%
14.2-14.4m sq km
30%
Yes
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$38k Vol.
$19k Liq.
8
Ends in about 1 year
$38k Vol.$19k Liq.8Ends in about 1 year
12%
Yes
Weather · climate
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
$28k Vol.
$6k Liq.
6
Ends in 6 months
$28k Vol.$6k Liq.6Ends in 6 months
39%
<4m sq km
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$3.9m Vol.
$187k Liq.
🔥$52k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years
$3.9m Vol.🔥$52k today$187k Liq.170Ends in almost 2 years
63%
Other
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$7.5m Vol.
$40k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$7.5m Vol.$40k Liq.Ends in 9 months
98%
↑2k
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$39k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.1m Vol.$39k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
14–16
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
$2.9m Vol.
$222k Liq.
42
Ends in almost 2 years
$2.9m Vol.$222k Liq.42Ends in almost 2 years
94%
1T+
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1.8m Vol.
$128k Liq.
22
Ends in 3 months
$1.8m Vol.$128k Liq.22Ends in 3 months
68%
8+
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?
$1.2m Vol.
$92k Liq.
17
Ends in almost 2 years
$1.2m Vol.$92k Liq.17Ends in almost 2 years
38%
Goldman Sachs
94%
April 30
Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?
$388k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$388k Vol.$20k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
2%
1600
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
$652k Vol.
$95k Liq.
9
Ends in almost 2 years
$652k Vol.$95k Liq.9Ends in almost 2 years
47%
2.0T+
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$171k Vol.
$8k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$171k Vol.$8k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
Precipitation in NYC in March?
$175k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$175k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
79%
3-4"
Precipitation in Seattle in March?
$322k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$322k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
93%
5-6"