Gpt 4 Predictions & Odds· 123 markets
82%
December 31, 2026
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$1k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$1k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
37%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$18k Vol.
$955 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$18k Vol.$955 Liq.4Ends in 3 months
56%
60%+
8%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 6 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 6 hours
2%
Yes
VEO 4 released by...?
$41k Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in about 6 hours
$41k Vol.$16k Liq.1Ends in about 6 hours
2%
Yes
49%
June 30
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$22k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$22k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
43%
1
55%
April 15
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
$30k Vol.
$15k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$15k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
17%
Yes
Claude Mythos released by…?
$42k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month
$42k Vol.$20k Liq.1Ends in about 1 month
70%
June 30
25%
Yes
machine learning · technology
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?
$144k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended
$144k Vol.$0 Liq.19Ended
artificial intelligence · technology
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April?
$22k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$22k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
No
August 7
