Gpt 4pt5 Predictions & Odds· 112 markets
82%
December 31, 2026
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$18k Vol.
$932 Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$18k Vol.$932 Liq.4Ends in 3 months
56%
60%+
8%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$854 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$854 Liq.1Ends in 3 months
44%
Yes
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
48%
June 30
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$666k Vol.
$20k Liq.
9
Ends in about 1 year
$666k Vol.$20k Liq.9Ends in about 1 year
44%
1
21%
June 30, 2026
54%
April 15
VEO 4 released by...?
$41k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in about 5 hours
$41k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
2026 U.S. House election: Republicans flip the Democrats by...?
$55k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$55k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
What will happen before GTA VI?
$19.8m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
794
Ends in 4 months
$19.8m Vol.$1.4m Liq.794Ends in 4 months
91%
Drake releases Iceman
artificial intelligence · technology
Will OpenAI release GPT-4.5 before April?
$22k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$22k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
No
machine learning · technology
Will GPT-4 have 500b+ parameters?
$144k Vol.
$0 Liq.
19
Ended
$144k Vol.$0 Liq.19Ended
ai technology · Business
GPT ads by...?
$1.2m Vol.
$0 Liq.
206
Ends in about 5 hours
$1.2m Vol.$0 Liq.206Ends in about 5 hours
March 31
