Jerome Predictions & Odds· 139 markets
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$139k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$139k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
May 14
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$16k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$16k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
100%
Yes
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$17k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$17k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
0%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
63%
June 30
0%
Yes
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.8m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$247k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.8m Vol.🔥$247k today$1.6m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$39.7m Vol.
$3.8m Liq.
🔥$2.5m today
26
Ends in 29 days
$39.7m Vol.🔥$2.5m today$3.8m Liq.26Ends in 29 days
98%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$3.0m Vol.
$263k Liq.
🔥$781k today
1
Ends in 4 months
$3.0m Vol.🔥$781k today$263k Liq.1Ends in 4 months
77%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.8m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$276k today
59
Ends in 9 months
$14.8m Vol.🔥$276k today$1.2m Liq.59Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
Fed Decision in June?
$4.8m Vol.
$806k Liq.
🔥$251k today
14
Ends in 3 months
$4.8m Vol.🔥$251k today$806k Liq.14Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$305k Liq.
🔥$150k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$150k today$305k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
26%
3.5%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$740k Vol.
$48k Liq.
🔥$80k today
28
Ends in 8 months
$740k Vol.🔥$80k today$48k Liq.28Ends in 8 months
18%
Yes
64%
December Meeting
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$247k Vol.
$22k Liq.
12
Ended
$247k Vol.$22k Liq.12Ended
3%
4.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$161k Vol.
$32k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$161k Vol.$32k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
92%
4.5%