Jerome Predictions & Odds· 127 markets
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$35k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$35k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$118k Vol.
$18k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$118k Vol.$18k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$21k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$21k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$28k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$28k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
T
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$8k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$8k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 3 months
71%
June 30
W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$18.7m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
73
Ends in 7 months
$18.7m Vol.🔥$1.1m today$1.8m Liq.73Ends in 7 months
97%
Kevin Warsh
F
Fed decision in April?
$47.2m Vol.
$4.2m Liq.
🔥$2.5m today
49
Ends in 26 days
$47.2m Vol.🔥$2.5m today$4.2m Liq.49Ends in 26 days
98%
No change
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$15.5m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$152k today
60
Ends in 9 months
$15.5m Vol.🔥$152k today$1.3m Liq.60Ends in 9 months
31%
0 (0 bps)
F
Fed Decision in June?
$5.3m Vol.
$1000k Liq.
🔥$103k today
23
Ends in 2 months
$5.3m Vol.🔥$103k today$1000k Liq.23Ends in 2 months
91%
No change
F
Fed Decision in July?
$3.2m Vol.
$297k Liq.
🔥$52k today
Ends in 4 months
$3.2m Vol.🔥$52k today$297k Liq.Ends in 4 months
81%
No change
F
98%
Pause–Pause–Pause
F
64%
December Meeting
F
15%
Yes
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$6.0m Vol.
$283k Liq.
5
Ends in 8 months
$6.0m Vol.$283k Liq.5Ends in 8 months
29%
3.75%
F
86%
Pause–Pause–Pause
W
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$303k Liq.
19
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.$303k Liq.19Ends in 9 months
66%
↓ 3.25%
F
72%
Pause–Pause–Pause
W
Who will Trump meet with in April?
$30k Vol.
$123k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$30k Vol.$123k Liq.Ends in 27 days
60%
Elon Musk
H
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$11k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 26 days
$11k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 26 days
43%
2
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$167k Vol.
$28k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$167k Vol.$28k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
86%
4.5%