Lex Fridman Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$60k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$60k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
L
0%
Yes
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$13k Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in 30 days
82%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$7k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$7k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 30 days
39%
C
19%
Yes
K
Khamenei # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 7 days
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 7 days
33%
<5
K
Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$20k Vol.
$9k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
$20k Vol.$9k Liq.Ends in 3 days
88%
<20
W
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
$33k Vol.
$16k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$33k Vol.$16k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
K
Khamenei # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?
$28k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$28k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
98%
<20
W
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$482k Vol.
$169k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$482k Vol.$169k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
44%
Anthropic
W
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
$91k Vol.
$13k Liq.
16
Ends in 9 months
$91k Vol.$13k Liq.16Ends in 9 months
34%
Yes
W
Which company has best AI model end of June?
$3.0m Vol.
$376k Liq.
64
Ends in 3 months
$3.0m Vol.$376k Liq.64Ends in 3 months
60%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$117k Liq.
2
Ended
$1.0m Vol.$117k Liq.2Ended
99%
Anthropic
A
3%
Yes
A
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$299k Vol.
$101k Liq.
9
Ends in almost 2 years
$299k Vol.$101k Liq.9Ends in almost 2 years
47%
$200M
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$567k Vol.
$77k Liq.
3
Ended
$567k Vol.$77k Liq.3Ended
99%
Anthropic
W
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$333k Vol.
$104k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$333k Vol.$104k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
49%
Anthropic
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Marxist