Liberation Day Tariffs Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$21k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$21k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
48%
Yes
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$20k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$20k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
1
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$40k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$40k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes
W
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
$9k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$9k Vol.$22k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
Z
Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$456 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$456 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 8 days
38%
60-79
Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$15k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$15k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
70%
80-99
Z
Zelenskyy # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$911 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$911 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 5 days
37%
140-159
#
# of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?
$21k Vol.
$31k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$21k Vol.$31k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
35%
2
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$93k Vol.
$24k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months
$93k Vol.$24k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
33%
June 30
#
# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
$21k Vol.
$28k Liq.
Ends in 2 months
$21k Vol.$28k Liq.Ends in 2 months
55%
10+
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
$23k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$23k Vol.$41k Liq.Ends in 27 days
52%
20+
W
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$132k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$132k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 1 day
83%
200+
W
White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$11k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$11k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in 8 days
35%
160-179
K
Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$2k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$2k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 8 days
42%
<5
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$652k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ended
$652k Vol.$53k Liq.Ended
4%
20+
K
Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$34k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$34k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 1 day
82%
<20
W
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$33k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$33k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 5 days
46%
200+
K
Khamenei # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$10k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$10k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 5 days
43%
20-24
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$31k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$31k Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
36%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$77k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$77k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes