Model Predictions & Odds· 490 markets
W
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$3.2m Vol.
$590k Liq.
🔥$339k today
Ends in 27 days
$3.2m Vol.🔥$339k today$590k Liq.Ends in 27 days
94%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$856k Vol.
$160k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$856k Vol.$160k Liq.Ends in 27 days
90%
Anthropic
W
Which company has best AI model end of June?
$3.0m Vol.
$381k Liq.
65
Ends in 3 months
$3.0m Vol.$381k Liq.65Ends in 3 months
64%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the third best AI model end of April?
$120k Vol.
$107k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$120k Vol.$107k Liq.Ends in 27 days
72%
W
Which company has the second best AI model end of April?
$21k Vol.
$90k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$21k Vol.$90k Liq.Ends in 27 days
87%
Anthropic
W
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$15k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$15k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in 27 days
85%
Anthropic
W
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$68k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$68k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
W
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$9k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$9k Vol.$34k Liq.Ends in 27 days
50%
W
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$335k Vol.
$109k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$335k Vol.$109k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
51%
Anthropic
W
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$71k Vol.
$27k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$71k Vol.$27k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
W
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$926k Vol.
$182k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$926k Vol.$182k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
51%
Anthropic
M
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$22k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$22k Vol.$4k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
31%
Yes
A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$4k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$5k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
C
60%
June 30
A
Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$191k Vol.
$21k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$191k Vol.$21k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
96%
35%+
C
Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score by December 31?
$67k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$67k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 9 months
45%
↑ 1550
A
Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$56k Vol.
$2k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$2k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
75%
Yes
O
OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
$18k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$18k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
41%
60%+
W
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
$24k Vol.
$27k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$24k Vol.$27k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
41%
None in 2026