Mucarsel Powell Predictions & Odds· 144 markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$23k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$23k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$166k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$166k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 7 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 7 hours
100%
Yes
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$20k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$20k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 3 months
65%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$48k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?
$168k Vol.
$11k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$168k Vol.$11k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
$79k Vol.
$37k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$79k Vol.$37k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$28k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$28k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$272k today
71
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$272k today$1.9m Liq.71Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$39.0m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$2.1m today
21
Ends in 29 days
$39.0m Vol.🔥$2.1m today$3.4m Liq.21Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.7m Vol.
$266k Liq.
🔥$451k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.7m Vol.🔥$451k today$266k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$275k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$275k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
36%
0 (0 bps)
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$339k Liq.
🔥$237k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$237k today$339k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
38%
3.75%
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$906k Liq.
🔥$225k today
13
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$225k today$906k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$262k Liq.
🔥$187k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$187k today$262k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
21%
Yes
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
$4.0m Vol.
$801k Liq.
45
Ends in 9 months
$4.0m Vol.$801k Liq.45Ends in 9 months
41%
No Next PM in 2026
Who will Trump meet with in March?
$239k Vol.
$128k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$239k Vol.$128k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
5%
Reza Pahlavi
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$161k Vol.
$18k Liq.
6
Ends in 9 months
$161k Vol.$18k Liq.6Ends in 9 months
92%
4.5%