Mucarsel Powell Predictions & Odds· 145 markets
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
33
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.33Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.8m Vol.
$136k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.8m Vol.$136k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
2%
May 14
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$15k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$15k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
$145k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 5 hours
$145k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 5 hours
100%
Yes
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
65%
June 30
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?
$48k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$48k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?
$169k Vol.
$10k Liq.
1
Ends in about 5 hours
$169k Vol.$10k Liq.1Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
$79k Vol.
$37k Liq.
1
Ends in about 5 hours
$79k Vol.$37k Liq.1Ends in about 5 hours
0%
Yes
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$18k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$18k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$227k today
69
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$227k today$1.7m Liq.69Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in April?
$39.1m Vol.
$3.3m Liq.
🔥$2.1m today
22
Ends in 29 days
$39.1m Vol.🔥$2.1m today$3.3m Liq.22Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.7m Vol.
$272k Liq.
🔥$500k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.7m Vol.🔥$500k today$272k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$279k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$279k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
34%
0 (0 bps)
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$293k Liq.
🔥$197k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$197k today$293k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
36%
3.75%
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$748k Liq.
🔥$180k today
13
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$180k today$748k Liq.13Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$198k Liq.
🔥$125k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$125k today$198k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$701k Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$52k today
27
Ends in 8 months
$701k Vol.🔥$52k today$49k Liq.27Ends in 8 months
21%
Yes
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
$4.0m Vol.
$666k Liq.
45
Ends in 9 months
$4.0m Vol.$666k Liq.45Ends in 9 months
41%
No Next PM in 2026
Who will Trump meet with in March?
$273k Vol.
$124k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$273k Vol.$124k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
14%
Andy Jassy
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$161k Vol.
$22k Liq.
7
Ends in 9 months
$161k Vol.$22k Liq.7Ends in 9 months
92%
4.5%