Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 117 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$66.0m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$3.7m today
1,282
$66.0m Vol.🔥$3.7m today$1.8m Liq.1,282
74%
December 31
W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.1m Vol.
$183k Liq.
265
Ends in 9 months
$9.1m Vol.$183k Liq.265Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$66k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$66k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
42%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$67k Vol.
$13k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$13k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
T
0%
Yes
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$389k Vol.
$43k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$389k Vol.$43k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$45k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$45k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
T
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$51k Vol.
$76k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$76k Liq.Ends in 9 months
63%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
38%
Leadership Change
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$21k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$21k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
39%
April 30
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$307k Liq.
🔥$67k today
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.🔥$67k today$307k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$18k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$569k Liq.
🔥$262k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$262k today$569k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes