Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 117 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$63.6m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$3.1m today
1,264
$63.6m Vol.🔥$3.1m today$1.5m Liq.1,264
73%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$56k Vol.
$15k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$56k Vol.$15k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$48k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$48k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$63k Vol.
$19k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$63k Vol.$19k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.1m Vol.
$192k Liq.
265
Ends in 9 months
$9.1m Vol.$192k Liq.265Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$22k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$22k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$45k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$45k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
$1.1m Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$1.1m Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$50k Vol.
$79k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$50k Vol.$79k Liq.Ends in 9 months
65%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$16k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$16k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
36%
Leadership Change
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$13k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$13k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$223k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$223k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$468k Liq.
🔥$78k today
5,425
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$78k today$468k Liq.5,425Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$364k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$364k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes