Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 158 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$63.2m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$2.8m today
1,261
$63.2m Vol.🔥$2.8m today$1.4m Liq.1,261
73%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$55k Vol.
$10k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$55k Vol.$10k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$39k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$39k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.1m Vol.
$156k Liq.
264
Ends in 9 months
$9.1m Vol.$156k Liq.264Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$63k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$63k Vol.$14k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
44%
Yes
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$34k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$34k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$50k Vol.
$54k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$50k Vol.$54k Liq.Ends in 9 months
65%
Yes
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
$1.1m Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.1m Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$229k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$229k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$464k Liq.
🔥$87k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$87k today$464k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$320k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$320k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,363
Ends in about 9 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,363Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes