Nuclear Weapons Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$48k Liq.
1
Ended
$2.2m Vol.$48k Liq.1Ended
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$157k Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$157k Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 30 days
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$48k Vol.
$64k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$48k Vol.$64k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
0%
March 31, 2026
0%
March 31, 2026
12%
Yes
24%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$137k Vol.
$19k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$137k Vol.$19k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
46%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$916k Vol.
$17k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$916k Vol.$17k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
33%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$30k Liq.
29
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$30k Liq.29Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$2k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$2k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
12%
April 30