Nuclear Weapons Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$13k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$13k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
$4k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$4k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$2.2m Vol.$50k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$155k Vol.
$49k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$155k Vol.$49k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$46k Vol.
$61k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$46k Vol.$61k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Russia nuclear test by...?
$1.3m Vol.
$9k Liq.
8
Ends in about 7 hours
$1.3m Vol.$9k Liq.8Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$592k Vol.
$12k Liq.
15
Ends in about 7 hours
$592k Vol.$12k Liq.15Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes
12%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$29k Vol.
$17k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$29k Vol.$17k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$128k Vol.
$26k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$128k Vol.$26k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
$126k Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$126k Vol.$36k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
13%
Yes
45%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
$1.5m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$1.5m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
1%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$908k Vol.
$19k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$908k Vol.$19k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$89k Vol.
$15k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$89k Vol.$15k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$31k Liq.
28
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$31k Liq.28Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
$22k Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$22k Vol.$7k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes