Peace Agreements Predictions & Odds· 149 markets
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$2.2m Vol.$51k Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$148k Vol.
$70k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$148k Vol.$70k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
17%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$42k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$42k Vol.$43k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$141k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$141k Vol.$43k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$234k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$234k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$357k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$357k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$9k Liq.
26
Ends in about 12 hours
$126k Vol.$9k Liq.26Ends in about 12 hours
1%
Yes
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$62.6m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$2.7m today
1,253
$62.6m Vol.🔥$2.7m today$1.5m Liq.1,253
73%
December 31
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$387k Vol.
$45k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$387k Vol.$45k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$53k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$53k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$62k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$62k Vol.$14k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
47%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$45k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$45k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$66k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$66k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
$385k Vol.
$90k Liq.
Ends in about 12 hours
$385k Vol.$90k Liq.Ends in about 12 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,363
Ends in about 12 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,363Ends in about 12 hours
0%
Yes
21%
June 30