Peace Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 114 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$65.6m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$3.7m today
1,280
$65.6m Vol.🔥$3.7m today$1.4m Liq.1,280
74%
December 31
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$63k Vol.
$10k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$63k Vol.$10k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$66k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$66k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
55%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$40k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$40k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$35k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$35k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
37%
Leadership Change
U
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
$9k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$9k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
19%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$246k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$246k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
U
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
$227k Vol.
$37k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$227k Vol.$37k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
13%
June 30
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$384k Vol.
$31k Liq.
16
Ends in 9 months
$384k Vol.$31k Liq.16Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$449k Liq.
🔥$242k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$242k today$449k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
P
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$126k Vol.
$8k Liq.
27
Ends in 3 months
$126k Vol.$8k Liq.27Ends in 3 months
50%
April 30
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ended
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ended
0%
Yes
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
U
0%
Yes
U
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$67k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$29k Liq.
79
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$29k Liq.79Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
A
No