Primary Ballot Predictions & Odds· 114 markets
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
$85k Vol.
$8k Liq.
-1
Ends in 3 months
$85k Vol.$8k Liq.-1Ends in 3 months
69%
Yes
Will any Illinois Dem House incumbent lose their primary?
$0 Vol.
$879 Liq.
5
Ended
$0 Vol.$879 Liq.5Ended
2%
Yes
Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?
$45k Vol.
$32k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$45k Vol.$32k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
69%
Dem-Rep
50%
2
81%
0
40%
7-9
73%
4-6
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
$2.8m Vol.
$47k Liq.
14
Ends in 7 months
$2.8m Vol.$47k Liq.14Ends in 7 months
35%
Yes
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
$4k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
$136k Vol.
$10k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$136k Vol.$10k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
90%
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
$10k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$10k Vol.$21k Liq.Ends in 4 months
60%
Josh Tenorio
Who will advance from the Alaska Governor primary?
$36k Vol.
$70k Liq.
2
Ends in 5 months
$36k Vol.$70k Liq.2Ends in 5 months
80%
Tom Begich
98%
Stratton 6–9%
Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
$393k Vol.
$328k Liq.
2
Ends in 2 months
$393k Vol.$328k Liq.2Ends in 2 months
64%
Eric Swalwell
Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff
$4k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$4k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
39%
0.6–0.9M
Guam Governor Republican Primary Winner
$15k Vol.
$27k Liq.
2
Ends in 4 months
$15k Vol.$27k Liq.2Ends in 4 months
72%
Vicente Ada
Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
$771 Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 4 months
$771 Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 4 months
80%
Phil Scott
California voter ID referendum passes?
$0 Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 7 months
22%
Yes