Reconciliation Predictions & Odds· 118 markets
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$35k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$35k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
51%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$239k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$239k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$62k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$62k Vol.$14k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$355k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$355k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Geopolitics · World
Next leader out of power before 2027?
$3.4m Vol.
$536k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$3.4m Vol.$536k Liq.Ends in 9 months
60%
Orbán - Hungary PM
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$464k Liq.
🔥$87k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$87k today$464k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$42k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$42k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$10k Liq.
26
Ends in about 10 hours
$126k Vol.$10k Liq.26Ends in about 10 hours
1%
Yes
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?
$372k Vol.
$0 Liq.
39
Ended
$372k Vol.$0 Liq.39Ended
No
All
Will the U.S. Senate pass a Reconciliation Bill by August 15?
$47k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$47k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
Mitch McConnell
No
How many votes will Reconciliation bill get in the House?
$110k Vol.
$0 Liq.
4
Ended
$110k Vol.$0 Liq.4Ended
217–218
July 4
End Tax on Tips
July 4
