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Repo Rate Predictions & Odds· 105 markets

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People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?

Economy·Global Rates

People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?

$117k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

0%

Yes

South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?

Economy·South Africa

South African Reserve Bank Decision in May?

$3k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months

62%

No Change

Reserve Bank of India decision in April

Economy·RBI

Reserve Bank of India decision in April

$4k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

94%

No Change

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$715k Vol.
$116k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

83%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$391k Vol.
$97k Liq.
19
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Economy·Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$2k Vol.
$135k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

76%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Economy·Macro Indicators

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

56%

↑3.72%

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?

World·Global Rates

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?

$21k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

62%

Increase

Fed Decision in July?

Economy·fomc

Fed Decision in July?

$2.7m Vol.
$260k Liq.
🔥$458k today
Ends in 4 months

78%

No change

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

World·RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

$12k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

58%

Increase

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Parlays · Hide From New

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

$65k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

80%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

Fed decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$39.0m Vol.
$3.3m Liq.
🔥$2.0m today
21
Ends in 29 days

97%

No change

Fed Decision in June?

Politics·Economic Policy

Fed Decision in June?

$4.7m Vol.
$896k Liq.
🔥$225k today
13
Ends in 3 months

88%

No change

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Finance·Business

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$74k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

19%

Yes

Fed rate cut by...?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$180k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

March Unemployment Rate

Economy·NFP

March Unemployment Rate

$38k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 3 days

29%

4.4%

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Politics·Tariffs

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

$1.2m Vol.
$46k Liq.
28
Ends in about 7 hours

98%

5–15%

February Unemployment Rate - Japan

Economy·unemployment

February Unemployment Rate - Japan

$35k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

56%

2.7%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$275k today
58
Ends in 9 months

35%

0 (0 bps)

Bank of England decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Bank of England decision in April?

$202k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

79%

No change