Security Predictions & Odds· 231 markets
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$18k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$18k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
E
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$102k Vol.
$10k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$102k Vol.$10k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
7%
Yes
W
When will the DHS shutdown end?
$615k Vol.
$111k Liq.
🔥$55k today
Ends in 28 days
$615k Vol.🔥$55k today$111k Liq.Ends in 28 days
43%
After April 30
W
1%
Yes
W
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
71
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
W
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$4.1m Vol.
$167k Liq.
🔥$155k today
174
Ends in over 1 year
$4.1m Vol.🔥$155k today$167k Liq.174Ends in over 1 year
46%
Other
I
Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.8m Vol.
$870k Liq.
🔥$93k today
72
Ends in 9 months
$5.8m Vol.🔥$93k today$870k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
67%
Mojtaba Khamenei
W
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
$2.0m Vol.
$120k Liq.
🔥$53k today
Ends in 3 months
$2.0m Vol.🔥$53k today$120k Liq.Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
W
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$887k Vol.
$99k Liq.
30
Ends in 9 months
$887k Vol.$99k Liq.30Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
W
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
$128k Vol.
$204k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
$128k Vol.$204k Liq.Ends in 6 months
7%
Yes
F
31%
June 30
S
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 1?
$4k Vol.
$180 Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours
$4k Vol.$180 Liq.Ends in about 3 hours
98%
Up
O
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 1?
$4k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours
$4k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in about 3 hours
86%
Up
I
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
$343k Vol.
$25k Liq.
18
Ends in 3 months
$343k Vol.$25k Liq.18Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
U
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$20k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$20k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
$157k Vol.
$222k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$157k Vol.$222k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
21%
Yes
I
18%
June 30