AI Development Predictions & Odds· 109 markets
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Meta "Mango" model released by...?
$4k Vol.
$3k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$3k Liq.3Ends in 3 months
44%
June 30
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$6k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$6k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
43%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
31
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.31Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
21%
December 31, 2026
USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$2.4m Vol.
$203k Liq.
52
Ends in 9 months
$2.4m Vol.$203k Liq.52Ends in 9 months
74%
$100M
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.1m Vol.
$165k Liq.
20
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.1m Vol.$165k Liq.20Ends in about 9 hours
99%
OpenAI
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$12k Vol.
$33k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$12k Vol.$33k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Anthropic
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$7k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$7k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
40%
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$54k Liq.
🔥$54k today
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.🔥$54k today$54k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
$5k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$5k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$5k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$5k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
39%
Head-mounted display
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$114k Liq.
1
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.0m Vol.$114k Liq.1Ends in about 9 hours
99%
Anthropic
8%
Yes
Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$544k Vol.
$73k Liq.
2
Ends in about 9 hours
$544k Vol.$73k Liq.2Ends in about 9 hours
98%
Anthropic
11%
Yes