AI Technology Predictions & Odds· 127 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$6k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$6k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
$12k Vol.
$3k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$12k Vol.$3k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
35%
Yes
Which company has the best AI model end of April?
$2.7m Vol.
$388k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$2.7m Vol.$388k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
90%
Anthropic
21%
December 31, 2026
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$801k Vol.
$95k Liq.
🔥$158k today
Ends in about 1 month
$801k Vol.🔥$158k today$95k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
85%
Anthropic
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$13k Vol.
$37k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$13k Vol.$37k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
82%
Anthropic
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$982 Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$982 Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
Which company has the #3 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
$7k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$7k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
40%
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
$13k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 8 hours
$13k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in about 8 hours
2%
Yes
8%
Yes
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
$241k Vol.
$8k Liq.
31
Ended
$241k Vol.$8k Liq.31Ended
44%
December 31, 2026
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Which company has the second best AI model end of April?
$13k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$13k Vol.$48k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
80%
Anthropic
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$54k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$54k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
$1.1m Vol.
$170k Liq.
20
Ends in about 8 hours
$1.1m Vol.$170k Liq.20Ends in about 8 hours
99%
OpenAI
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
25%
Yes
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$5k Liq.
12
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$5k Liq.12Ends in 9 months
40%
Head-mounted display
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$113k Liq.
1
Ends in about 8 hours
$1.0m Vol.$113k Liq.1Ends in about 8 hours
99%
Anthropic