Artificial General Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 101 markets
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$6k Liq.
10
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$6k Liq.10Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
22%
December 31, 2026
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
$73k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$73k Vol.$8k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
46%
Yes
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
$3k Vol.
$977 Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$3k Vol.$977 Liq.1Ends in 3 months
46%
Yes
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
$70k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$70k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
6%
Yes
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$1k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$1k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
29%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
82%
December 31, 2026
61%
Yes
71%
June 30
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
$1.4m Vol.
$51k Liq.
25
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$51k Liq.25Ends in 3 months
28%
OpenAI
Which company will have the best AI model for math on March 31?
$495k Vol.
$63k Liq.
4
Ended
$495k Vol.$63k Liq.4Ended
100%
OpenAI
63%
April 17
Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
$1.0m Vol.
$120k Liq.
2
Ended
$1.0m Vol.$120k Liq.2Ended
99%
Anthropic
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$45k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in 30 days
$45k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in 30 days
17%
Yes
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
$333k Vol.
$105k Liq.
53
Ends in 3 months
$333k Vol.$105k Liq.53Ends in 3 months
50%
Anthropic
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
$482k Vol.
$167k Liq.
24
Ends in 3 months
$482k Vol.$167k Liq.24Ends in 3 months
43%
Anthropic