Engagement Predictions & Odds· 377 markets
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
$462k Vol.
$13k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$462k Vol.$13k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
6%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$65.0m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$3.4m today
1,278
$65.0m Vol.🔥$3.4m today$1.3m Liq.1,278
73%
December 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ended
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ended
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$500k Liq.
🔥$242k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$242k today$500k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$229k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$229k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
1%
↓ 10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$1.5m Vol.
$117k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$1.5m Vol.$117k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$58k Vol.
$11k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$58k Vol.$11k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$65k Vol.
$11k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$65k Vol.$11k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$105k Vol.
$11k Liq.
27
Ends in 30 days
$105k Vol.$11k Liq.27Ends in 30 days
18%
April 30
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$125k Liq.
32
Ends in 9 months
$1.4m Vol.$125k Liq.32Ends in 9 months
20%
December 31
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$196k Vol.
$75k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$196k Vol.$75k Liq.Ends in 9 months
23%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$44k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$44k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
$515k Vol.
$77k Liq.
32
Ends in 9 months
$515k Vol.$77k Liq.32Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
US x China Military clash before 2027?
$53k Vol.
$28k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$53k Vol.$28k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$38k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$38k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
44%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
38%
Leadership Change
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$126k Vol.
$8k Liq.
26
Ends in 3 months
$126k Vol.$8k Liq.26Ends in 3 months
51%
April 30
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
$60k Vol.
$25k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$60k Vol.$25k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
42%
Yes