Fivethirtyeight Predictions & Odds· 100 markets

W
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?

$27k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

74%

↓ $6,300

W
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

$28k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

84%

↓ $6,200

A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

$27k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months

28%

Yes

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

92%

Yes

W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

$0 Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months

86%

Yes

W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

$50k Vol.
$9k Liq.
14
Ends in 27 days

19%

Yes

W
What will Trump say this week? (April 5)

What will Trump say this week? (April 5)

$28k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 days

36%

Delcy / Rodriguez

W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?

$544k Vol.
$15k Liq.
🔥$123k today
177

21%

Yes

U
UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

$21 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 days

39%

Up

W
What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)

What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)

$19k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 days

95%

Terrorist

W
What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?

What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?

$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 29 days

85%

↓ $248

5
5kt meteor strike in 2026?

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

$276k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

37%

Yes

E
Eurovision 2026: Top 5

Eurovision 2026: Top 5

$43k Vol.
$243k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month

82%

Finland

B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

$207k Vol.
$76k Liq.
7
Ends in 6 months

41%

Lula da Silva <5%

W
What will Trump say in April?

What will Trump say in April?

$40k Vol.
$20k Liq.
15
Ends in 27 days

78%

Disgusting

I
IN-05 House Election Winner

IN-05 House Election Winner

$0 Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 7 months

85%

Republican Party

W
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)

What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)

$497 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours

92%

Trump

W
What will Trump say in March?

What will Trump say in March?

$993k Vol.
$138k Liq.
🔥$636k today
84
Ended

0%

Yes

"
"The Drama" Rotten Tomatoes score?

"The Drama" Rotten Tomatoes score?

$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 3 days

98%

72+

Z
Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

$456 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days

39%

60-79