Fivethirtyeight Predictions & Odds· 100 markets
W
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
$27k Vol.
$29k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$27k Vol.$29k Liq.Ends in 3 months
74%
↓ $6,300
W
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
$28k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$34k Liq.Ends in 9 months
84%
↓ $6,200
A
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$27k Vol.
$4k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$27k Vol.$4k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
$2k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$2k Vol.$10k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
92%
Yes
W
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
$0 Vol.
$7k Liq.
2
Ends in 7 months
$0 Vol.$7k Liq.2Ends in 7 months
86%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$50k Vol.
$9k Liq.
14
Ends in 27 days
$50k Vol.$9k Liq.14Ends in 27 days
19%
Yes
W
What will Trump say this week? (April 5)
$28k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
$28k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in 2 days
36%
Delcy / Rodriguez
W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?
$544k Vol.
$15k Liq.
🔥$123k today
177
$544k Vol.🔥$123k today$15k Liq.177
21%
Yes
U
UK Government approval Up or Down this week?
$21 Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 3 days
$21 Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in 3 days
39%
Up
W
What will Trump post this week? (March 30 - April 5)
$19k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 2 days
$19k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 2 days
95%
Terrorist
W
What will Apple (AAPL) hit in April 2026?
$5k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 29 days
$5k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in 29 days
85%
↓ $248
5
37%
Yes
E
Eurovision 2026: Top 5
$43k Vol.
$243k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$43k Vol.$243k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
82%
Finland
B
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
$207k Vol.
$76k Liq.
7
Ends in 6 months
$207k Vol.$76k Liq.7Ends in 6 months
41%
Lula da Silva <5%
W
78%
Disgusting
I
85%
Republican Party
W
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (April 3)
$497 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$497 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
92%
Trump
W
What will Trump say in March?
$993k Vol.
$138k Liq.
🔥$636k today
84
Ended
$993k Vol.🔥$636k today$138k Liq.84Ended
0%
Yes
"
98%
72+
Z
Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$456 Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$456 Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in 8 days
39%
60-79