FOMC Predictions & Odds· 210 markets

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

$38.5m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$1.9m today
18
Ends in 29 days

97%

No change

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

$2.5m Vol.
$254k Liq.
🔥$303k today
Ends in 4 months

78%

No change

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

$4.6m Vol.
$909k Liq.
🔥$193k today
11
Ends in 3 months

87%

No change

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$713k Vol.
$110k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

83%

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$390k Vol.
$101k Liq.
17
Ends in 29 days

97%

Pause–Pause–Pause

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$10k Vol.
$20k Liq.
Ends in 29 days

44%

2

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

$956 Vol.
$130k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

73%

Pause–Pause–Pause

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$5.9m Vol.
$373k Liq.
🔥$363k today
8
Ends in 8 months

34%

3.75%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1.3m Vol.
$252k Liq.
🔥$281k today
18
Ends in 9 months

64%

↓ 3.25%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$279k today
58
Ends in 9 months

37%

0 (0 bps)

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.2m Vol.
$179k Liq.
15
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$70k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

21%

Yes

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

$40k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

78%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?

$32k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

Yes

Powell says "unemployment" 5+ times in FOMC statement?

No

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

$33k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

No change, Dissents: ≥2

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

$103k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

25bp cut, Dissents: >2

Powell Bingo: March

Powell Bingo: March

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
2
Ended

Yes

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?

What will Powell say during March Press Conference?

$49k Vol.
$0 Liq.
47
Ended

Inflation 40+ times

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$0 Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended

1