Jerome Predictions & Odds· 328 markets
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$138k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$138k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
May 14
J
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
$243k Vol.
$22k Liq.
34
Ends in 3 months
$243k Vol.$22k Liq.34Ends in 3 months
3%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$117k Vol.
$15k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$117k Vol.$15k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
70%
December 31
N
100%
Yes
J
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$16k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$16k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
J
0%
Yes
T
Trump · Fed Rates
Trump drops Powell investigation by…?
$4k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$4k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 3 months
64%
June 30
W
0%
Yes
W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.9m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$314k today
72
Ends in 7 months
$15.9m Vol.🔥$314k today$1.6m Liq.72Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
F
Fed decision in April?
$39.9m Vol.
$4.0m Liq.
🔥$2.3m today
26
Ends in 29 days
$39.9m Vol.🔥$2.3m today$4.0m Liq.26Ends in 29 days
98%
No change
F
Fed Decision in July?
$3.1m Vol.
$266k Liq.
🔥$842k today
1
Ends in 4 months
$3.1m Vol.🔥$842k today$266k Liq.1Ends in 4 months
77%
No change
F
Fed Decision in June?
$4.8m Vol.
$799k Liq.
🔥$268k today
14
Ends in 3 months
$4.8m Vol.🔥$268k today$799k Liq.14Ends in 3 months
88%
No change
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.8m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$258k today
59
Ends in 9 months
$14.8m Vol.🔥$258k today$1.3m Liq.59Ends in 9 months
37%
0 (0 bps)
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$297k Liq.
🔥$113k today
9
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$113k today$297k Liq.9Ends in 8 months
28%
3.75%
F
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$741k Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$81k today
28
Ends in 8 months
$741k Vol.🔥$81k today$49k Liq.28Ends in 8 months
18%
Yes
F
64%
December Meeting
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$248k Vol.
$23k Liq.
13
Ended
$248k Vol.$23k Liq.13Ended
1%
4.6%
H
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$161k Vol.
$31k Liq.
11
Ends in 9 months
$161k Vol.$31k Liq.11Ends in 9 months
92%
4.5%