Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 159 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$81.4m Vol.
$2.6m Liq.
🔥$7.4m today
1,411
$81.4m Vol.🔥$7.4m today$2.6m Liq.1,411
73%
December 31
W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.2m Vol.
$197k Liq.
264
Ends in 9 months
$9.2m Vol.$197k Liq.264Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$432k Vol.
$34k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$432k Vol.$34k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$20k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$20k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$103k Vol.
$55k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$103k Vol.$55k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
53%
Yes
T
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$53k Vol.
$69k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$53k Vol.$69k Liq.Ends in 9 months
48%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$31k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$31k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
22%
Leadership Change
T
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?
$720 Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$720 Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 3 months
7%
Yes
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$35k Vol.
$24k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$35k Vol.$24k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$452k Liq.
🔥$475k today
Ends in 27 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$475k today$452k Liq.Ends in 27 days
2%
Yes
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$17k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$17k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$14k Vol.
$232k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$14k Vol.$232k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
5%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$3k Vol.
$120k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$3k Vol.$120k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
52%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,430
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,430Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$132k Vol.
$32k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$132k Vol.$32k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes